Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 13.299688 15.513616 17.933208 20.767407 23.989434 27.531454 31.712837
2024-10-27 9.833658 12.841110 16.455169 21.087565 26.833759 33.691060 42.453621
2024-11-03 8.146307 11.701995 16.326607 22.706232 31.190151 41.985631 56.645507
2024-11-10 6.762917 10.570357 15.877156 23.674687 34.671209 49.429095 70.491328
2024-11-17 5.732898 9.665862 15.495010 24.545747 37.971173 56.821659 84.869997
2024-11-24 4.699279 8.521072 14.526040 24.344120 39.603776 61.931623 96.428250
2024-12-01 3.756637 7.316541 13.236863 23.408385 39.931927 65.060624 105.263166
2024-12-08 3.055815 6.372298 12.192229 22.664912 40.385827 68.301899 114.396038
2024-12-15 2.633691 5.842309 11.750882 22.828176 42.254220 73.806891 127.341385
2024-12-22 2.221709 5.245616 11.088845 22.496951 43.215308 77.880515 138.256254
2024-12-29 2.047087 5.093721 11.222249 23.594763 46.716940 86.347376 156.844219
2025-01-05 1.830979 4.808869 11.050068 24.084257 49.152716 93.162866 173.106106
2025-01-12 1.606620 4.471149 10.742438 24.315043 51.213408 99.625666 189.481972
2025-01-19 1.409389 4.157055 10.439421 24.522493 53.262145 106.252015 206.671660
2025-01-26 1.353454 4.182251 10.877008 26.305686 58.520220 119.040538 235.588489
2025-02-02 1.251590 4.066408 10.978371 27.382463 62.469891 129.694846 261.342962
2025-02-09 1.153940 3.940253 11.035005 28.362495 66.301530 140.378584 287.796894
2025-02-16 1.001441 3.621935 10.577994 28.129675 67.587264 146.283187 305.732175
2025-02-23 0.831638 3.206642 9.807067 27.065052 66.987689 148.452481 316.717828
2025-03-02 0.697888 2.866039 9.167299 26.219348 66.760625 151.306921 329.146176
2025-03-09 0.622238 2.696987 8.959868 26.404785 68.838186 158.940818 351.337594
2025-03-16 0.537302 2.470708 8.552395 26.028087 69.587671 163.873539 368.434146
2025-03-23 0.512188 2.457752 8.760575 27.276027 74.229224 177.238315 403.226277